Global Port Tracker: Why the 2026 Peak Season Is Ending and What Shippers Should Do
NRF and Hackett Associates now see U.S. container imports cooling in November. Here is how to plan inventory, contracts and carrier space around that shift.
In this report 7 sections
The Global Port Tracker, a monthly forecast from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, says the 2026 import peak is winding down. August was likely the busiest month of the year at 2.3 million TEU, and November is forecast to dip about 1% below last year. Shippers should expect easier port and carrier conditions soon.
Peak season usually arrives in the fall and fades by Thanksgiving. This year it started early, and the numbers now say the heavy lifting is behind us. Laneage covers freight, trade and ecommerce operations, and this article is for importers, brand operators and freight buyers who need to decide what to do with that signal.
What Does the Global Port Tracker Actually Say?
The Global Port Tracker says import volume at major U.S. container ports is slowing from its summer highs. The report, dated October 8, 2026, calls the extended peak season "wrapping up." August came in at 2.3 million TEU, which was down 0.7% from August 2025 and up 0.4% from July.
A TEU, or twenty-foot equivalent unit, is the standard way to count containers. One 40-foot box counts as two TEU. The tracker adds up the major ports so that readers can see the national flow instead of a single gateway.
According to the National Retail Federation (NRF) press release, September is projected at 2.28 million TEU, up 8.2% year over year. October is forecast at 2.25 million TEU, up 8.5%. Then volume steps down, with November at 2.0 million TEU and December at 2.02 million TEU.
Jonathan Gold, NRF's vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said the peak started early and the busiest part of the year has likely passed. He also noted that month-to-month differences are often "little more than a rounding error." That is a useful warning against reading too much into any single figure.
How Do the Monthly Numbers Compare?
The table below lays out the tracker's monthly picture. Figures for September onward are projections, not final port counts.
| Month | TEU (millions) | Change vs. prior year |
|---|---|---|
| August 2026 (final) | 2.30 | -0.7% |
| September 2026 (projected) | 2.28 | +8.2% |
| October 2026 (forecast) | 2.25 | +8.5% |
| November 2026 (forecast) | 2.00 | -1.0% |
| December 2026 (forecast) | 2.02 | +0.6% |
| January 2027 (forecast) | 2.07 | -1.9% |
| February 2027 (forecast) | 1.92 | +1.0% |
Two things stand out. First, the year-over-year gains in September and October look large, but they compare against a weaker stretch in 2025, when importers held back during tariff uncertainty. Second, the first quarter of 2027 is forecast to be flat to slightly lower, which tells you there is no big restocking wave waiting in the wings.
For the full year, the tracker projects 25.8 million TEU, up 1.4% from 25.4 million TEU in 2025. The first half of 2026 totaled 12.7 million TEU, up 1.1%. In other words, 2026 is a steady year, not a boom.
Why Did Peak Season Come Early This Year?
Peak season came early because importers pulled orders forward to get ahead of tariff changes and carrier surcharges. When buyers expect costs to rise, they ship sooner. The result is a high summer, a strong early fall and a thinner stretch right after.
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said core economic indicators are "broadly flat or weakening slightly month over month." He added that consumer confidence has fallen to multi-year lows even as spending stays strong despite rising inflation. That mix is why forecasters are cautious.
The pattern matters because ocean freight is slow. A box ordered in September lands in late October or November. If shoppers pull back after Black Friday, those late arrivals become January markdowns. We have seen the same logic play out in our coverage of Panama Canal transit limits, where timing decisions made weeks earlier decided who had stock and who did not.
The early start also pulled forward the work of ports, truckers and warehouses. Terminals that ran near capacity in August and September now have room to catch up. Dwell time, the days a box sits before pickup, usually shortens once the surge fades, which helps importers who still have goods in transit.
Capacity matters too. C.H. Robinson's October 2026 freight market update says ocean conditions vary by lane, with Golden Week capacity cuts out of China, Suez Canal changes and Panama Canal restrictions all limiting usable space. Lower volume will not fix every lane at once.
What Should Shippers Do With Their Inventory Plans?
Start by checking what is already on the water. Pull every open purchase order with an arrival date after November 15 and ask a hard question for each: will this sell at full price before the new year? If the answer is no, talk to the supplier now about splitting shipments or delaying the sailing.
The steps below give a simple order of operations for a mid-size importer.
- List every container due after mid-November, with SKU, cost and expected sell-through.
- Flag items that depend on holiday demand and cannot wait for January.
- Ask suppliers whether later orders can ship by a slower, cheaper service.
- Cancel or push back low-margin SKUs that would land after the rush.
- Recalculate safety stock using the lower November and January forecasts.
Safety stock is the extra inventory held to cover surprises in demand or supply. After an early peak, many brands carry more of it than they need. Trimming it frees cash and warehouse space, and it lowers the odds of paying long-term storage fees in the new year.
Brands that rely on Amazon should also watch their fees. As our guide to the Amazon seller insurance rule shows, marketplace rules can change costs quickly, and a slow quarter leaves less margin to absorb them.
How Does a Cooling Peak Change 2027 Freight Contracts?
A cooling peak gives buyers more leverage. When volume falls, carriers compete harder for the freight that remains, and spot rates tend to soften. That is the moment to open conversations about 2027 contracts instead of waiting for the usual spring bid cycle.
Three levers are worth testing. Ask for shorter contract terms or quarterly rate resets so you can follow the market down. Ask for volume commitments with a wide tolerance band, so a flat quarter does not trigger penalties. Ask for a cap on surcharges, because fuel and congestion add-ons are where cost creep hides.
The truck and rail side matters as well. The same C.H. Robinson update says intermodal demand is rising as shippers look for more long-haul options, and truckload route guide tension has eased since Labor Day. Our look at LTL's pull on truckload volume explains why mode choice is shifting for pallet shippers.
One caution applies. Lower volume does not guarantee lower rates on every lane. Carriers can blank sailings, which means cancelling scheduled trips, to keep space tight. Always compare quotes from at least two carriers or forwarders before you sign anything.
What Could Make the Forecast Wrong?
The forecast can miss in either direction. Gold's "rounding error" comment is honest. The tracker is built from port data, retailer surveys and economic models, and each piece has error bars. A sudden tariff change, a port strike or a surprise surge in holiday spending could all move the numbers.
Demand is the biggest unknown. Hackett's note about falling consumer confidence suggests shoppers are cautious, yet spending is holding up. If inflation keeps climbing, discretionary categories such as furniture and electronics could soften first, while essentials hold steady.
Inventory is a third unknown. Retailers stocked up early, so shelves are fuller than usual going into November. If holiday sales come in softer than hoped, brands will cut orders sharply in the new year, and the January and February forecasts could fall further than the tracker now shows.
Policy is the second unknown. Tariff rules shifted several times this year, and importers cannot assume that today's duty rates will apply on the day a box clears customs. Build a small buffer into landed-cost models, and track announcements from U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
The practical answer is to plan for the middle of the range and keep options open. Do not cancel everything because the tracker looks soft, and do not double down on stock because August looked strong.
The Takeaway for Shippers
The Global Port Tracker says the heavy part of the 2026 import season has passed. November and January are forecast to be flat to slightly lower, and the full year lands at 25.8 million TEU. That is a stable year, not a surge.
At Laneage, our editors treat that as a cue to tighten inventory, not to panic. Your next step this week is to list every container that lands after November 15, mark the ones that will not sell before January, and call your suppliers and forwarders about them while carriers still want your business.
